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Lesson 11: Climate Change Causes and Impacts

Dr. Mathews preaching to the choir on a lovely February afternoon.
Lesson Introductory Video Text Version (click to reveal)

[Dr. Mathews is wrapped in a thick coat and sweater while wearing a wool snow hat.] Dr. Mathews: It is a beautiful day in Happy Valley. It's early February, the sky is blue (Tyndall Effect), the sun is shining brightly, and I haven't had to shovel snow yet. [Dr. Mathews takes off his hat, jacket, and sweater as he continues talking.] In fact it is so warm I haven't to need my hat, I don't need my jacket, and it is even warm enough that I don't need my wonderful hand knitted sweater; made with loving care by Ellen Jane Mathews my Grandmother. It's sixty degrees out. Students are walking around in their shorts, it's beautiful weather. It's a great day to be alive. Why is it this warm? Is it something to do with the carbon dioxide that we have been emitting since the industrial revolution into the atmosphere? Is it the greenhouse effect gone wild? Is it global warming, is it climate change? What are all of these things and what are we doing to combat these things? You are going to find out later in this lecture. [Video ends]

Overview

There is a connection between energy use and the environment. The climate we experience locally is not merely the results of our local behaviors and weather patterns, but is also linked to the regional and global patterns. As this realization grows, so too does the need for governments to address the serious climate issues of our time.

The purpose of this and the next lesson, is to provide you with an opportunity to increase your awareness of the energy and climate-related issues and challenges facing the world today.

Lesson Objectives

You'll be successful in lessons 11 and 12 once you have demonstrated that you can do all of the following:

  • Define greenhouse gases, the greenhouse effect, and climate change.
  • Provide clear evidence of climate change.
  • Discuss technologies for gas separation and sequestration of CO2.
  • Articulate US & foreign positions on climate change.
  • Articulate and rank options to mitigate climate change.

Wake Up Your Brain

Question: So are you concerned with the impacts of climate change?

Yes
No


Click for some additional information.

ANSWER:
The IPCC (2014) has issued the strongest language to date on climate change: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. The question now becomes how we deal with this issue: technology, conservation, adaptation, making energy more expensive?

The Carbon Cycle

The Carbon Cycle: It's everywhere you want to be...

Text Version [1]

Photosynthesis

Photosynthesis is the process by which plants absorb the sunlight, store it, and convert it into energy to grow and survive. It is represented by the following equation, where the plant takes in carbon dioxide and water, stores and uses the glucose to grow and live, and releases oxygen back into the environment.

6 CO2 + 6 H2O – energy →C6H12O6 + 6 O2

The energy is supplied by solar energy (sunlight). The glucose (C6H12O6) is used by the plant as a storage medium for the energy. As the plant grows [2] it will use the glucose to supply the plant with energy.

Decay

A flower growing out of a decaying stump.
Photosynthesis and decay in the same picture! Splendid!
Credit: JP Mathews

When plants die, this process simply works in reverse.

C6H12O6 + 6 O2 – decay → 6 CO2 + 6 H2O

Walking through almost any forest is the best way to witness the decaying process in action. The ground is generally strewn with dead and decaying leaves, limbs, branches, and sometimes entire trees. If they did not decay, we would be faced with a serious dead-tree population problem in our forests. Then imagine the scope of this problem times millions of years. This helps illustrate the nature and the value of the carbon cycle.

However, in Pennsylvania about 320 million years ago (and even today) the forests did not decay. Instead, the trees fell into swamps (bogs) and were protected from the decay process. Eventually, these trees formed coal. In the oceans, plankton and algae went through similar processes. There, the stored solar energy eventually formed oil (protection from oxygen at the bottom of the ocean, with sediment burial). Now as we use the fossil fuels (combustion) we release CO2 (a greenhouse gas) back into the atmosphere.

Want to see a swamp?

Listen to this audio file about Bear Meadows [3]. (Text Version of Bear Meadows audio [4])

Swamp Audio: Text Version (click to reveal)

Dr. Mathews: For those of you who are close to University Park there aren't swamps very far away. If you go to Tussey Mountain and keep on going and follow the signs for the nature area you will come across a very small swamp (or technically, a type of bog) very close to State College. It is a very interesting drive and a very interesting ride. But it is still going on. The process that was very important three-hundred million years ago in this region for a large quantity of coal that was formed, is still happening today. It is just that to form the crude oil and to form coal and natural gas it is such a long time process that these swamps won't be of any use to us because we cannot afford to wait that long. But go and take a look around. They are very beautiful. Essentially the key ingredient is a relatively stagnant water supply because that way it has a low oxygen content. And if it has a low oxygen content, that is what's important to the decay process. Look at the equation. You need to have oxygen. If you can protect the system of oxygen then only certain bugs will be able to nibble at these various components of this organic material.

So What?

The carbon cycle tells us that CO2 in the atmosphere is in equilibrium with the CO2 in the oceans and CO2 in the atmosphere is also in equilibrium with the CO2 chemically bound within minerals (carbonates like CaCO3 calcium carbonate, otherwise known as limestone).

Equilibrium (symbol for equilibrium. top arrow pointing left and bottom arrow pointing right) indicates that eventually the chemical reaction will balance such that the forward reaction and the backward reaction both occur at the same rate and so at certain conditions, a certain ratio is achieved (for example 60:40 or 60% of a reactant on the left-hand side of the reaction and 40% in another chemical form on the right-hand side of the reaction). The key issue, however, is that the equilibrium may be reached slowly (thousands of years) or very fast (a fraction of a second). Kinetics decides how fast the reactions will occur (recall the discussion on catalytic converters).

The lifetime of greenhouse gases can be very long (slow to reach equilibrium):

Thus, burning fossil fuels will increase the concentration of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and enhance the greenhouse effect, which in turn will increase the global temperature.

Picture showing the sources of CO2 (Land mass, atmosphere, and ocean).
While carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for a while, ultimately it will end up in the ocean (dissolved or in carbonates etc.), or on the land (in biomass and carbonates etc.).
Credit: JP Mathews

Climate Change

Climate Change vs. Global Warming

Climate Change is the preferred term to describe the rapid changing of the climate that we (the planet) are experiencing mainly since the 1900s. It is related to global warming.

Global Warming is the increase in temperature (generally) that has been occurring mainly since the 1900s. The issue, however, is not simply, that on average, the planet's temperature is warming. Rather, if you agree that the climate will get warmer, then it makes sense that the warming will affect the water cycle and that, in turn, (coupled with a warming) will influence the climate. Global warming is the often used term, but not by my students who know better — climate change, please!

What is the difference?

Not all of the areas of the planet are likely to experience a warming. Some areas will experience a cooling, so climate change is the preferred terminology. Also warming in some areas may prove beneficial but without water this benefit will be lost. Alternatively, if there is a change in the precipitation (rain, snow, hail, etc.) pattern as you would expect if the temperature changes, then too much or too little water can both be disastrous. Thus we are experiencing change, not just warming! Some plants will grow quicker and larger, while others will not grow, so change is the key term.

The Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect is a highly beneficial process where the planet is warmed by greenhouse gases helping to trap some of the radiation that would have otherwise escaped back into space. Without greenhouse gases the surface temperature of the planet would be an average –18 °C (0 °F)! Chilly.

Greenhouse Gases

 Link to the Greenhouse effect infographic. See caption for details. [5]
The greenhouse effect works because of IR radiation coming from the surface of the planet and IR absorbing molecules in the atmosphere. They absorb then emit IR in all directions, a portion going back to the earth surface. Click on the image to see an enlarged view.
Credit: United Nations Environment Programme / GRID-Arendal

Greenhouse Gases are gases (in the atmosphere) that will absorb infrared [6]radiation (l [7]earn more about the electromagnetic spectrum [7]) [8]. Naturally released greenhouse gases include water (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) & nitrous oxide (N2O) (a.k.a. laughing gas). Ultra Violet radiation (UV) will penetrate the atmosphere and a portion will be absorbed by the surface of the planet. When radiated back into the atmosphere it will be in the form of Infrared radiation (IR), thus some of this IR radiation will be absorbed by greenhouse gases. Being dumb molecules they don’t know which is up or down so after “doing their thing” they get “tired” and re-emit the IR radiation, a portion of which goes back to earth warming the planet. (Click on the molecule to see the molecule "Doing its thing" [9].) "Doing their thing" implies the excited state of the molecule. Through a series of bond stretching, bending, wagging etc. the molecule uses the energy (without significant losses). This is an example of methane going through its excited states within the IR spectrum. The IR spectrum of an unknown gas can be used to identify some gases or their relative portions.

 Link to an animation of a molecule doing its thing. See caption for details. [9]
Click on the image to see molecule of Methane "doing its thing."

Providing the concentrations of the greenhouse gases remain the same, other than [10]normal seasonal temperature fluctuations, [10] the planet will have a relatively stable temperature year to year. Of course, there are natural cycles in place that both remove and replace these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The National Academy of Science has a nice graphic explanation of the greenhouse effect [11].

Climate Change vs. the Weather

 Degrees Fahrenheit in Pittsburgh, PA over a year.
Daily mean maximum temperature and extremes for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

It is tempting on a very hot day to say: “that bloody global warming again!” But that would be incorrect. We do not say: “bloody ice age” on those very cold days (although predictions were made when I was a lad that we were about to enter a new ice age!). The weather is an event that is going to change and the temperature variations can be dramatic. Climate change occurs over a much longer time frame: at least decades! When we see a change in the average temperatures over the last 20 to 30 years then that is climate change. Climate change might influence the weather, stronger storms, more or less rain, but single weather events cannot be attributed to climate change although there is progress in linking climate change to storm strengths, etc..

Where are the Greenhouse Gasses Coming From?

If we focus on the anthropologic emissions of CO2 we can find out where the CO2 is coming from and then we know who is to blame! The allocation of greenhouse gases is clearly shown indicating that the transport , industry and electricty generation is now the prime contributors (emissions from electicty generation have decreased with fuel switching away from coal). Utilities are easier to impact as there are far fewer utility plants than vehicles (~250 coal fired utilities down from ~500, there are 96 or so nuclear utilities, etc.) The recent increase in shale gas extraction has contributed to a significant reduction of CO2 from coal as utilities switched to the now cheap natural gas. For the U.S. to move forward with greenhouse gas reductions: transportation with need to be decarbonized or at least have much lower emissions (you know how to achiveve that — right?)

U.S. Carbon Emission Sources. Carbon emissions are from the energy intensive operations, mostly electric utilities and transportation, contributing 56% of the emissions.
Credit: EPA
 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (kilograms per millionBtu) Natural Gas 57, Oil 79, Coal 89
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (kilograms per million Btu of fuel). For the same amount of fuel energy, coal will release more CO2. Why are they not all the same?
Credit: NETL Combustion Calculations - HHV basis

This should come as no surprise. Recall that we obtain energy from the following reaction:

C (in oil or gas or coal or biomass) + O2 →
CO (2/3 of the energy) is from this step and then CO →
CO2

So when we combust the fossil fuels, biomass (wood), gasoline, or diesel we release CO2 into the atmosphere. Since much of our energy comes from the chemical energy stored in fossil fuels, we release a great deal of CO2 into the atmosphere. Methane has more hydrogen than coal and so less CO2 emissions.

So I can blame the utility industry and the automotive industry, right?

Look in the mirror. You use electricity to power this computer, light your surroundings, and play that stereo (turn it down it is too loud!). You drive/fly and so you are to blame (me too). What we need is a technological solution, or a change in our behavior. Both are not easy to discover (technology) or implement. There is also a significant impact on changing land use, and natural events such as volcanoes or forest fires.

This is a cool graphic that examines the greenhouse gas contributions to the temperature rise [12]. (Make sure you scroll down to see the animations on the data). It also shows the contributions from some of the other initial theories for why climate change was occurring.

Carbon Dioxide Levels

The Raging Debate on Climate Change

Who is a skeptic?

Let us look at the data! What do you think has happened since the Industrial Revolution when most of the combustion of fossil fuels has occurred? Climatologists have been keeping records of the composition of the air around the world for about 60 years now. One of the longest recordings is from the Mauna Loa Observatory [13] in Hawaii.

Why the roller coaster ride? Recall the carbon cycle has both photosynthesis and decay occurring, so in the Spring when plant life is growing, the CO2 concentration falls, while during the Fall and Winter the decay process dominates and the CO2 concentration increases.
Happy with that explanation? Here is the updated data, the trend has continued

CO2 levels chart showing the general increase in atmospheric CO2 levels
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, from 1958 to today.
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

If you answered no, give yourself a pat on the back. Remember that it is Winter in Australia when it is Summer here. So how can the CO2 concentration cycle? The Southern hemisphere is mostly water and so the summer/winter activities in the northern hemisphere dominate.

Season Designations for the Northern Hemisphere
Click for the transcript.

SPRING: (Image of the tilt of the earth in the spring) In this configuration, the earth is not tilted with respect to the sun’s rays (The earth in this picture is actually tilted towards you as indicated by the fact that you can see the North Pole – green dot). Therefore, radiation strikes similar latitudes at the same angle in both hemispheres. The result is that the radiation per unity area is the same in both hemispheres. Since this situation occurs after winter in N. Hemisphere we call it spring, while in the S. Hemisphere it is autumn. This occurs on March 21.

SUMMER: (Image of the tilt of the earth in the summer) When the N. Hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, the sun’s rays strike the earth at a steeper angle compared to a similar latitude in the S. Hemisphere. As a result, the radiation is distributed over an area which is less in the N. Hemisphere than in the S. Hemisphere (as indicated by the red line). This means that there is more radiation per unity area to be absorbed. Thus, there is summer in the N. Hemisphere and winter in the S. Hemisphere. This situation reaches a maximum on June 21.

AUTUMN: (Image of the tilt of the earth in the autumn) In this configuration the earth is not tilted with respect to the sun’s rays (The earth in this picture is actually tilted towards you as indicated by the fact that you can see the North Pole – green dot). Therefore, radiation strikes similar latitudes at the same angle in both hemispheres. The result is that the radiation per unit area is the same in both hemispheres. Since this situation occurs after summer in the N. Hemisphere we call it autumn, while in the S. Hemisphere it is spring. This occurs on September 21.

WINTER: (Image of the tilt of the earth in the winter) When the N. Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun, the sun’s rays strike the earth at a shallower angle compared to a similar latitude in the S. Hemisphere. As a result, the radiation is distributed over an area which is greater in the N. Hemisphere than in the S. Hemisphere (as indicated by the red line). This means that there is less radiation per unit area to be absorbed. Thus, there is winter in the N. Hemisphere and summer in the S. Hemisphere. This situation reaches a maximum on December 21.

Source: D. Babb

What About The Temperature?

Okay, so we know the concentration of greenhouse gases has increased in the atmosphere over the last 50 years (Keeling curve and other observations) so what has happened with the global temperature over that time period? It has increased but here is a difference in the increase between the land and the ocean?

Chart showing the land is warming more than the ocean.
The global temperature has both risen and fallen but the overall trend is of the global temperature getting hotter by about 2.3 °F or 1.3 °C (or Kelvin).
The coke (my wife does not drink Pepsi-Sorry Penn State) on the left was from a can in the fridge, the coke on the right was from a can in the living room. Coke is sweetened carbonated water. Carbonated means saturated with CO2. The bubbles (the fizz) are carbon dioxide. As the warmer coke will not hold the carbon dioxide it fizzes more and will be "flat" quicker. Did you know they used to put cocaine in coke and it is where the name comes from! Talk about addictive!
Coke Video: Text Version (click to reveal)

[Video opens with two glasses of soda. The one on the left has very little air bubbles rising to the top. The one on the right is bubbling at a much higher rate.]

Okay, so now we realize it is a complex issue. Other causes have been suggested, such as increased solar activity warming the planet, which warms the oceans and reduces the amount of CO2 that can be held in the water. (huh????)

The important fact is that the temperature of the planet has increased by about 1 °F during the last 100 years. Phew, I thought we were in trouble for a minute! Why all the fuss over about 1°F?

If we look at longer timelines we can determine that this rate of change is very rapid! The planet goes through these changes anyway, but very slowly, usually. After all, the geography of large areas of North America is a result of ice ages and glaciers scouring the earth. So how do we know what the temperature was hundreds to thousands of years ago, or what the CO2 levels were?

How do we know what the temperature and CO2 concentrations were?

Look at tree rings.

Picture of the grains in a piece of wood forming tree rings.
This tree looks to be my age.

Some of the trees in the world live long, long lives and by looking at the thickness of the rings as well as the number, the relative climate can be determined. This technique was used to show that the first few years of the Jamestown colony were very dry which contributed to their near starvation. While this technique can only go back a few hundred years it is still very useful for looking back at climate history over those years. The image shown indicates a little trouble with a forest fire in this tree's history. Here at Penn State, there is a tree ring laboratory, where this image was obtained (with permission I might add!). Recall that trees grow because of CO2 (the carbon cycle). They also grow faster with more CO2 so some believe that we should treat CO2 not as a pollutant but rather as a fertilizer for the trees. More CO2 may well produce quicker growing forests and other crops!

Listen to an audio track about wood from the lake [14].

Wood from the Lake Video: Text Version (click to reveal)

Dr. Mathews: When sailing ships from Great Britain found the continent of the United States they were very happy to find one thing that was desperately needed, trees. Very, very large trees. Trees, remember, are very important for military reasons. Remember England is an island, so if you want to go out and conquer the world, you need a navy. A navy requires wood. And the bigger the trees there are, the bigger the boats you can build with larger guns. And so we were very happy to find very large trees in American which we could take back and use in our shipbuilding processes. The trees you see here now in Pennsylvania are essentially the third generation of clear-cutting. Originally the forest would have been very different. And in fact there is a company out, I think, in the lakes of Minnesota, where they found large submerged logs. And they would bring them up with cranes and sell them at market. What makes this wood so valuable and worth the effort, is it was part of the original forest, the first clear-cutting. In those days a canopy was very very thick. And so the trees tended to grow slower because they received less light. Therefore, the rings were much closer together. And the grain or the beauty in the wood in the furniture making process is much richer and highly more valued. And so these trees could be worth a hundred thousand dollars. A hundred and twenty-five years later after laying in the bottom of a lake.

From Ice Cores

The air temperature influences the size of snowflakes. Warmer snow has larger flakes. Thus, when you look at snow after digging a hole to sit in you will see layering. This is useful information for the prediction of avalanche conditions. As the snow ages and more snow is deposited on top, the snow will form ice. There are a few locations in the world where the ice is very thick and hence there is data for thousands of years in the ice cores that they drill and bring back. You can also see the volcanic dust from long since past eruptions and date the ice with known volcanic events, or simply count the ice layers as you would rings on the tree (size of the snowflake influences the optics of the ice, which is related to the temperature).

 Picture of a scientist observing ice cores in a lab.
Ice cores, containers for miniature time capsules of earth's atmosphere.
Credit: USGS

Another very useful aspect of the ice is small air bubbles trapped within. These are miniature time capsules that contain a sample of the air from when the snow fell. Thus, we can determine the levels of CO2, methane, or other gases in the atmosphere. We have some faculty here at Penn State that do this. Dr. Richard Alley!

From Coral

 Picture of scientists drilling coral core samples.
A pair of divers drilling coral core samples.
Credit: NOAA

In the same way that ice cores can reveal both temperature and a measure of the gas concentrations, coral can indicate the temperature and the concentration of CO2 in the ocean, which is related to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Coring the coral looks like a much better job than coring the ice! As the coral has a slow growth rate there are again thousands of years of information available in certain locations. Unfortunately for the coral, the temperature sensitivity will cause their loss in some locations, if it gets much warmer.

Here is some data from a longer time period [15]

Changing Land Use

It is not only the burning of fossil fuels which is impacting CO2 emissions. Changing land use is also an issue.

A photo of the oldest pub in England, the barroom is built into the rock of Nottingham Castle.
The "Trip to Jerusalem" Inn claims to be the oldest Pub in England. I have many fond memories of having a few pints at this location. The educational context you ask? Listen to this [16].
Text Version (click to reveal)

Dr. Mathews: I obtained my first degree from Nottingham Trent University. It is a wonderful university and a great city of Nottingham. And of course with the drinking age being 18, the pubs featured very heavily in our lifestyle. One of my favorite pubs was the Trip to Jerusalem Inn. This claims to be the oldest pub in the country. The story goes that the knights, on their way to Jerusalem, came out of Nottingham Castle, turned right, went to the bar to have a beer, and then continued on for the crusades. If they did the same trip now, they would go past the statue of Robin Hood. The city of Nottingham is very much synonymous with Robin Hood and his merry men. Interesting though, if you would like to go to Sherwood Forest from Nottingham it would take about a five day walk to get there. Nottingham Forest, or Sherwood Forest more correctly, has shrunk considerably since the day of Robin Hood and his merry men. Land changing issues are very important. In this satellite photograph you can see areas where roads have come in and the forest is being cleared and logged. We have an insatiable appetite for wood. Just look around you. I am sure you could probably see a wooden door or a wooden desk or a wooden chair. So very interestingly when we cut down these forests we release a great deal of CO2 into the atmosphere and of course that contributes to climate change. On the global scale now, Europe doesn't commit a great deal of CO2 from land change use issues. What happens is we have already cut down most of our forests and those that are remaining are protected. However, it is the developing nations and some other nations where significant land changes are still occurring and it is all going to contribute to climate change. Remember, these forests are great big CO2 sinks, they are self propagating storage areas for carbon monoxide.

Photo Credit: C. M. Saunders

As I ponder the seasonal event of raking leaves, I wish I had a smaller garden, or fewer trees. My house is a typical size for the State College area at about 0.3 acres. That does not sound like much (until you rake leaves), but there are lots of houses. As the population grows and economic development occurs, new homes are constructed. So every home on a "Greenfield" site takes away a chunk of land that used to hold biomass. My house was built in 1972 on what was once farmland. Going further back in time, the whole State College area was forest. Indians (Native Americans) lived on the land and killed settlers in this area. Look at the map sometime and see how many "fort somethings" there are.

And we're not just talking about land for residences - this includes roadways, open parks, schools, businesses, shops, natural products and agriculture. You've heard this before...."They paved paradise, and put up a parking lot"...Joni Mitchell

As more forest is clear cut there is less of a carbon sink to contain carbon and this influences CO2 emissions, particularly if burning is the means to "clear cutting" of the forest. This issue of land change is a major issue in the developing world. Here in the US, our agricultural productivity has risen so that the government pays farmers not to farm the land! Deforestation also causes loss of environment for endangered species, runoff, loss of topsoil through erosion, and deadly mudslides in locations such as Haiti.

 Satellite image of deforestation in the Amazon. Described in caption.
Here the deforestation occurring provides wood or grazing for cattle. "Satellite image of deforestation in the Amazon region, taken from the Brazilian state of Para on July 15, 1986. The dark areas are forest, the white is deforested areas, and the gray is re-growth. The pattern of deforestation spreading along roads is obvious in the lower half of the image. Scattered larger clearings can be seen near the center of the image.
Credit: NASA

 

The Impacts of Climate Change - On Crops

A truck harvesting a wheat field.
Harvest: Not so good for allergies, but a fantastic Neil Young album!
Credit: EPA

As a lad, I spent many a day in the field baling hay and working in the garden. I hated it! I brought a tear to my father’s eye the day I told him I was going to Astroturf the whole lot the day after he died! It took lots of time and nurturing to grow the vegetables and other foodstuff and I would rather have been elsewhere. To get the prize-winning leeks, the ground had to be fertile and you also needed the right amounts of sun and rain (not usually a problem in England). We had good seasons and bad. The weather certainly had an impact. There were seasons where we needed rain and plenty of days when we wished it would stop raining. If the planet warms up, and/or there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere the plants will be happier and grow quicker. Carbon dioxide, after all, is where the mass of the plant comes from. Plant an acorn, wait 50 years, and see how large the oak tree grows. Where does all the mass come from? Not from the ground, but from the atmosphere: good old CO2!

A flooded rice field.
Reminiscent of all the Vietnam war movies, this rice paddy requires enough water to flood the field for rice to grow.
Credit: EPA

But if the planet warms, then it is likely that evaporation will increase and that will impact the distribution of precipitation. Change here is very important! Wheat, for example, is grown in the heartland of America because that is where the conditions are appropriate. While initially, at least, productivity might increase with warmer temperatures, productivity will decrease and the appropriate location for growing wheat may move across the border to Canada.

Listen to an audio track [17].

Text Version (click to reveal)

Dr. Mathews: How plant life adapts to more CO2 is going to be interesting. Some people see it as a great benefit. That more crops will be able to feed the planet, not something we do particularly well right now. Simply that the forests and the other crops will simply adapt, grow quicker, and that the planet will take care of itself. That it has mechanisms in place to try to reduce drastic change. Certainly, we expect certain plants to grow quicker and certainly, some are going to be quite happy about the increased concentration levels of CO2. We will wait and find out what happens. But again fascinating subject.

Imagine growing rice without a paddy, hard to do! It is not all doom and gloom, climate change may prove to be beneficial in certain areas for certain crops; perhaps doom and gloom is appropriate for some other crops, however. We could always adapt and plant other crops, the developed world regularly irrigates (providing we can find the water or divert the occasional river). Famine in other locations, however, may be a very real threat. The combination of changing temperature, changing precipitation, and the response of the crop are the important factors.

Impacts of Climate Change - On Coastal Regions

 A snow capped mountain.
Snow in the mountains, bright and white because of the reflected sunlight which is why you wear ski goggles with UV protection-prevent snow blindness.
Credit: EPA

I was one of the few who liked "Water World" with Kevin Costner; I thought it was a decent movie. The premise was that the oceans had risen and flooded the whole planet with only small isolated fragments of land being the “Holy Grail." One of the big fears is that with climate change we might see a similar event (although not as catastrophic). When water warms, it expands. If the temperature changes then we should expect the sea level to rise (although some places on the planet will be cooler, the overall trend is a warming one). Glaciers will melt  (although new ones might also form), also adding to the volume of water in the ocean.

If you look at the wildlife in England and France, for example, you will find them to be similar, even dating back to the dinosaur fossils. Presuming that they did not swim across, means that there was once a land bridge where the English Channel now is. There are many places where what is now land at one time was under the ocean. Odds are that where you are now is on what was once ocean (a good chunk of North America was once undersea). So this is not as fantastic an idea as it may seem.

Of course, you should worry if you are close to the coast. A high percentage of most populations are close to the coast as shown in this image from NASA. Certain island nations are also in the “hot seat” with regard to sea level rise.

Listen to an audio track about land reclamation [18].

Text Version (click to reveal)

If sea level continues to rise, then obviously there is an issue with flooding of the land. If you think about the Netherlands, you generally think of Holland and the windmills. The windmills are there to keep the land dry. Much of the territory is actually recovered from the sea and so there is an extensive system of dykes or walls that keep the sea out and these windmills continually pump out the water. Now that's a very expensive undertaking and if you're a poor nation, you can't afford healthcare and you can't afford education for your populace, it's very unlikely that you're going to be able to afford to have an extensive system of dikes to protect your island chain. Places like Indonesia where you have high mileage of coastline and poor populations, India, China, etc., that's where the problems are going to be. The rich, industrialized nations will be able to have expensive engineering processes to try to protect the cities from flooding. Such as the one that London has done back in the early 1980's. But it's a very expensive operation and so again, it is the poor that are going to suffer if indeed we are going to see an extensive raising of the sea levels.

Satelite image of the earth taken at night. [19]
Planet Earth even while sleeping is lit up like a Christmas tree. Click on the image to see a very large version of Earth at night.
Credit: EPA
A lake. A sign says For Sale: Small islands with private dock and dwelling only 9 feet from the ocean! The 9 is crossed out and a 6 is written in.
The impact of rising oceans will be felt along the low-lying coast. Watch out Indonesia! The more coast you have the greater the impact.
Credit:JPM

Below is an image of the US at night taken from space. Where is all the light coming from? Click on the image to see the concentration of the US population. What is the relationship between the two?

 Map of the United States at night showing all of the lights. [20]

Cough, Cough, Cough, Kick the Bucket!

 Bar graph depicting the global reported cases of dengue (a steady rise after that).
Dengue cases have increased. Could this be due to warmer weather increasing the duration (more days) of mosquito activity in the Summer?
Credit: World Health Organization

Warmer and wetter environments, or warmer waters, might well allow diseases to enter environments not previously exposed. Infestation may increase; tropical diseases associated with warmer climates might well appear in US cities. Dengue is one example that is relatively rare in the Northeast but we might observe an increase as mosquitoes continue to be active for a greater time period because of the climate change. It is a nasty viral disease that causes rashes and soreness in joints - very unpleasant!

Water quality is another issue that will be influenced by climate change. There may be more algae blooms and the possibility of water-borne diseases may increase. Increases in temperature or even increased snowfall (remember change is the issue) will cause more deaths from the extremes of heat or cold. Air quality may also be influenced. All in all, many negative impacts on our health are predicted.

 Interactive image of a mosquito.
Buzzzzzz, move the mouse over this image for a pleasant surprise!
Credit: EPA

 

What is uncertain?

What we are uncertain about (most things)!

image of an avatar of a man

What is certain, is that climate change is occurring! That is about the only certainty when this subject is debated. There are a lot of uncertainties:

  1. Why it is happening: Natural or anthropogenic? [21]

    Why it is happening: Text Version (click to reveal)

    Dr. Mathews: While we do agree that climate change is occurring, we are still debating what to call this. Certainly we have seen natural changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns in the past. The big debate is this anthropologic related due to man's activities or changing land use, the removal of the forests, from occupation or crops growing or is it perhaps a very natural event that is occurring as we have seen previously in the history of the planet. So we are still going to debate this. There are still a lot of interested parties however, saying that we don't know enough and that you don't want to make too many decisions that are going to impact the well being economically of the United States when there is so much uncertainty.

  2. Impact of snow and ice melting? [22]

    Impact of Snow and Ice Melting: Text Version (click to reveal)

    Dr. Mathews: One of the reasons things are so uncertain comes because of feedback loops. Imagine this scenario, it warms up, snow melts. Because the snow melts it reveals more land. Well the land will warm up more because it is receiving more energy. When there is snow or ice on the ground, when there is sunlight, much of it gets reflected back up into space. When you go skiing, one of the key items of your equipment is goggles. Snow blindness is a very real threat because so much more light gets bounced from the surface into your eyes that in fact you can actually go blind. It is a very similar things with clouds. World War II pilots would wear sun glasses and if they are fighting in Europe it is not because of the English weather. When you are flying above clouds, again a lot of that light gets reflected back off the surface of the clouds because of the whiteness and it impacts how much energy reaches the surface of the planet. So back to the snow, snow melts, revealing more land the land warms up, the climate warms up, more snow melts. More snow melts, revealing more planet, more warmth from earth's land. This is a cycle. And it can happen the other way. We think ice ages, what happens is it snows, more energy is reflected. Then it gets warmer. Then it snows some more, more energy is reflected, the planet gets colder. It snows some more. A lot of these feedback loops will be happening and they can have a very drastic on how one assigns climate change models.

  3. Predictions are, well predictions. [23]

    Predictions: Text Version (click to reveal)

    Dr. Mathews: Predictions are, well, predictions. We are not very good at telling the weather. When you are watching the Weather Channel they will tell you four days in advance and when there is a significant snow event coming we will see the snow falls change on an hourly basis. From the predictions from anywhere from we are going to get two feet of snow to we are going to get less then an inch. We are not very good at predicting the weather. What is going to happen is we are going to know if we are right 20, 40, 50 years from now. And there is a lot we don't understand. And the fear is that we are maybe jumping in too early, maybe by some. Others say the risks are worth it that we are probably going to help reduce pollutants in other areas as well and increase our energy efficiency. And it is going to have other benefits. But not much is certain in this area. So predictions, are well, just that. The computational models we use vary very widely from location to location and model and the assumptions that go into these models. So it is a very interesting subject.

Well, perhaps there are some other certainties. There will be a cost ($) to reduce pollution, or reduce energy use!

As more research has been performed there is much greater certainty that climate change is the result of human activities. From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

Who do I blame?

Greenhouse Gas Potential. 82.4% CO2, 9.2% CH4, 6.4% N2I, 2.0% HFCs, PFCs and SF6
When the greenhouse gas potentials are factored in, CO2 is still the most important greenhouse gas overall for U.S. anthropologic emissions.
Credit: EPA

The reason that we have such a high quality of life in the United States is directly related to our energy usage. Washers and dryers, dishwashers, microwave ovens, garage door openers, DVDs, big screen televisions, personal automobiles, cell phones, and computational communications are all examples of devices which we would find hard to give up. How the energy is used in these devices (efficiency), the device numbers (energy demand), and how that energy is produced (coal, nuclear, wind, etc.) will impact the pollution that we produce. If you consider CO2 to be a pollutant (some well-respected scientists don’t) then the energy to run the country, goods, and services is all for our benefit so you are to blame.

We can be more efficient or use renewable energy but it will cost more. We already use $1,300 worth of energy for everyone in the US (the bills that you pay, such as electricity, gasoline, natural gas etc.). Bottom line: Your high quality of life comes with a financial and an environmental cost.

International Perspective

Chart showing CO2 emissions per capita (per person) by nation, the US is leading over Australia, Canada, and the other economically developed nations.
The U.S. emits twice the greenhouse gases per person than the Brits! Shame on you!

We lead in the category of most CO2 emissions per person (per capita) among the big emitters (there are some small nations with higher emissions).

What do all of the countries listed have in common? What type of countries are missing? Is it fair to other countries that we pollute internationally on this scale?

Industry

Industry is one of the major contributors of CO2 emissions. Here we include utilities (those sites that produce electricity) and other energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel, and paper manufacturing. Goods are being made because we want them!

Transportation

It is not just the movement of the populace around the country (about 13,000 miles per car per year) but also the movement of goods and services. We don't make cars in State College so they have to be brought to the marketplace (and all of their components need to be transported to the assembly plant). Bananas, oranges, and exotic fruit from around the world are delivered to supermarkets and dining establishments - to serve us! We are in a market-driven economy. We make stuff because we can sell it (at a profit). If there are no buyers, then no goods will be made.

Commercial buildings

Commercial buildings such as offices and supermarkets, some of which are open 24 hours a day (I love the service economy that we have in the US!), need to be heated, cooled and require security and internal lighting. All of these activities require energy. Often, as the space is quite large, they will need a lot of energy.

Residential

Heating (in the NE), cooling, hot water, TV, garage door openers, refrigerators, the list goes on.

Agriculture

You need to: plow, sow, plant, irrigate, spray, fertilize, harvest, process, and deliver your goods, all using energy. There is also considerable decay at the end of the growing seasons when the unwanted biomass is composted or burned off. All so you can get a Big Mac and fries!

Lesson 11 Climate Change Coverage Map

A Visual Overview of Climate Change Issues

The image map below is a visual overview of the main ideas contained in this lesson. Hover over the text for more information.

Accessible Version (word document) [24]

Deliverable

After looking at this map, please take the L11 quiz.


Source URL: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/node/657

Links
[1] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/node/766
[2] https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/courses/egee101/L10_climate/plants.html
[3] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/photosyntheis.mov
[4] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/node/805
[5] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/greenhouse.gif
[6] https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/courses/egee101/images/L10/emschart_NASA.gif
[7] https://science.nasa.gov/ems/01_intro
[8] http://imagers.gsfc.nasa.gov/ems/waves.html
[9] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/L10_CH4.mov
[10] https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/courses/egee101/L10_climate/temps.html
[11] https://www.koshland-science-museum.org/explore-the-science/interactives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect#
[12] http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
[13] http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/
[14] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/L10_wood_lake.mp3
[15] http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/etc/graphs.html
[16] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/L10_land_change.mp3
[17] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/plant_life.aif
[18] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/L10_water_world.mp3
[19] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/earth_night_NASA.jpg
[20] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/USA2.gif
[21] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/l10_119_why_hap.mov
[22] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/impact_ice_snow.mov
[23] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson10/predictions.mov
[24] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee101/files/Lesson11/Lesson%2011%20Coverage%20Map.docx