Published on EGEE 101: Energy and the Environment (https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101)

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Lesson 13: World View and Energy Future

Lesson Objectives

Success in this lesson will be based on the following things

  • Having a basic understanding of why the US energy projections are the way they are.
  • Knowledge of climate change stabilization wedges (finishing up climate change).
  • The ability to review world oil issues.

Wake Up Your Brain

Question: So are you glad the semester is over?

Yes
No


Click for answer.

ANSWER:
I certainly am!
 Image of Dr. Mathews.
 

 

Annual Energy Outlook (U.S.) and World Energy

The Energy Future

Much of the course has looked back over the energy transitions. Let's spend a short lesson looking forward. Every year the department of energy (the energy information agency portion) releases the Annual Energy Outlook. These reports contain the latest energy statistics and projections. Take a look at this years Annual Energy Outlook Report [1] (read pages 5 to 10 to get an overview of the changes and emerging issues in Energy and Environment). Also of note is the BP report the BP Statistical Review of World Energy [2]  See the one page overview on "2019 in a glance" (the 2020 report will be out in late 2021 with the Covid-19 impacts).

Front cover the of Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook report
Credit: EIA

World and Climate Change

Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change

Related to the image of the world at night is the point sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Note that the locations are mostly in the developed nations with a strong presence from China and India.

 CO2 sources world map.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
Credit: Energy

The bulk of our energy-related pollution comes from electricity generation and transportation. For example look at the U.S. data.

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector, 2005-2016.
Credit: EIA estimates

Overall, we still expect to see carbon dioxide levels decreasing for the US in the short term. Hot summers (lots of air condensation), cold winters, and world economic productivity will influence emissions. Of issue is whether carbon dioxide sequestration will have a role to play in reducing the rate of growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the future (perhaps). Fuel switching is the leading contributer to this reduction (shale gas replacing coal), but as we have seen, much of the international growth in electricity is likely to come from the cheapest, available source: coal.

Chart showing CO2 decline in the U.S.
U.S.  Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Energy related)
Credit: Energy Information Agency

Some nations have already enacted policies that have resulted in carbon dioxide emission reductions. Below is the artistic representation of the Sleipner natural gas platform in the North Sea off the coast of Norway. The rig is extracting natural gas, but like other natural gas wells, will also contain carbon dioxide. Separating and releasing the carbon dioxide is common, however, a carbon tax in Norway makes this expensive. Thus, they sequester the carbon dioxide in a deep saline aquifer under the ocean but above the gas field. With >10 years of experience >10 million toms of carbon dioxide have been stored. This is one of the few large-scale sequestration sites currently in operation. To put this in perspective: a 500 MW coal-fired power plant will generate nearly 4 million tons of CO2 per year.

 Sliepner sequestration site
Artistic representation of the Sleipner natural gas platform in the North Sea off the coast of Norway.
Credit: Statoil

There are a variety of large-scale point sources of carbon dioxide that could provide an opportunity for sequestration (or in the terminology of the day: carbon capture and storage). These could be electric utilities, cement manufacturing, refineries, ethanol production facilities, and others. If you would like more information on geologic sequestration see the Geologic Sequestration Atlas [3]. The image below shows large-scale point sources of carbon dioxide and the location of deep saline aquifers as well as oil and natural gas fields, and coal basins (some of the coal being too deep to mine and a potential sequestration site). Generally, we have good location citing between sources and sinks. Yet it is unclear how significant a role CCS will be in the future. It will not be enough by itself, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions back to previous levels.

 Map showing carbon dioxide sources and sinks.
Point sources of carbon dioxide emissions and location of deep saline aquifers, potential sequestration sites for carbon dioxide.
Credit: Natcarb
Left, Map of US oil and gas fields, Right, Map of US coal basins
Oil and gas fields (left hand side) and coal basins. Potential sequestration sites for carbon dioxide.
Credit: Natcarb

For a look at how the U.S. might meet reduction goals (we are not sure what these reduction goals might be, and it will likely be a moving target):

Workers at Princeton suggested a 7 "wedges" strategy to meet 2004 carbon dioxide emission levels (it now seems that many nations will find the Kyoto reductions out of reach). "Very roughly, stabilization at 500 ppm requires that emissions be held near the present level of 7 billion tons of carbon per year (GtC/year) for the next 50 years, even though they are currently on course to more than double." There are 15 options, any 7 of which combined would provide the stabilization. View Introduction to the Wedges [4] from Princeton University for additional information.

 Wedges for co2 stabilization
7 Wedges strategy.
Credit:Princeton University

The 15 Options

Option 1: Improved fuel economy

Option 2: Reduced reliance on cars. A wedge would also be achieved if the average fuel economy of the 2 billion 2054 cars were 30 mpg, but the annual distance traveled were 5000 miles instead of 10,000 miles.

Option 3: More efficient buildings

Option 4: Improved power plant efficiency. This can be achieved through gasification of coal, oxy-combustion, and other approaches.

Option 5: Substituting natural gas for coalescent from natural gas has fewer CO2 emissions

Option 6: Storage of carbon captured in power plants

Option 7: Storage of carbon captured in hydrogen plants

Option 8: Storage of carbon captured in synfuels plants (carbon capture and storage)

Option 9: Nuclear fission

Option 10: Wind electricity

Option 11: Photovoltaic electricity

Option 12: Renewable hydrogen

Option 13: Biofuels

Option 14: Forest management

Option 15: Agricultural soils management. This is essentially terrestrial carbon capture, increased carbon in the soil.

None of these are easy fixes, each is a grand challenge alone. Together 7 of these will be a grand, grand challenge!

The full paper is: Pacala, S.; Socolow, R., Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. Science 2004, 305 (5686), 968-972.

A word on the Kyoto Protocol. After Australia ratified the protocol in 2008, the U.S. stands alone as a participant who has signed but not ratified the Protocol. The Protocol became active in 2005 when the necessary number of participants (covering a certain percentage of the greenhouse gas emissions) had ratified it. How we move forward is not necessarily tied to the Kyoto Protocol. It will certainly be interesting to see how far we deal with CO2 and how quickly.

 Kyoto map 2009
Kyoto Protocol participants who have signed and ratified the treaty (green). The U.S. stands alone as a signatory who has not ratified the treaty. Not that it matters. Very few countries will meet their target goals. Note Australia joined and then un-joined.
Credit: Kyoto Protocol

World Oil

World Proved Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas

The map below shows the world's oil fields. But how much oil is left? The following link contains a table with proven worldwide reserves of oil and natural gas [5]. It’s interesting to see the total worldwide picture in one place and the number of countries that have proven hydrocarbon reserves. However, although it’s popular to measure reserves using the term “proven reserves,” that is not the whole story.

 World oil map
Worldwide areas with known oil occurrences.
Credit: EIA

The Oil Reserve Fallacy

Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply. You have so far seen the simplified picture. Let's dig a little deeper into running out of oil: Look into this site by Bill Kovarik on the oil reserve fallacy. [6] Why is the situation more complex than the simple view? How much oil is there?

The Importance of Refining CAPACITY

The images below show the locations of U.S. refineries and the natural gas pipeline network.

Map of the United States showing refining locations (clustered in several locations: Gulf Coast, Northeast, etc.)
Locations of Operable Petroleum Refineries in the U.S.
Credit: EIA
 Map of natural gas pipelines in the US.
U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network
Credit: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil & Gas, Natural Gas Division, Gas Transportation Information System.

There are a number of observations that can be made from these figures. Firstly, there are concentrations of refineries in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. There is significant production in those areas and also oil can be offloaded at the major oil ports. The Northeast U.S. has refineries clustered in the coastal areas, again access to both domestic and imported oil. There is obviously a demand for refined products in densely populated areas. 

Natural Gas Pipelines and LNG

For the natural gas pipelines, there are a number of locations where natural gas can be imported to or exported from the US. This includes 9 LNG (liquefied natural gas) facilities in the continental US and Alaska and an additional one in Puerto Rico. LNG is important to the US in that it allows natural gas to be transported by special ships after converting the gas to a liquid (by lowering the temperature of the gas to minus 160 °C. Prior to the acceptance of this process by the industry, gas was vented to the atmosphere or burned in many places in the world as it was not economical to transport it by pipeline. There are many sources available on the internet if you would like more information on LNG. An overview is here [7]. Bottom line is that natural gas is a desirable fuel that is mostly stranded as we do not yet have the pipelines to export large quantities overseas through LNG shipping terminals.

World Crude Oil Refining Capacity

You can see from the charts below that not all producing countries have significant refining capacities. Countries that have significant oil production such as Nigeria, export crude to other countries and import refined products such as gasoline. 

 World Crude Oil Refining Capacity 1970 - 2007
World Crude Oil Refining Capacity
Credit: Energy Information Administration /  Annual Energy Review 2007

World Electricity

Every year the demand for electricity grows. Traditionally, the bulk of the demand has come from the OECD countries, which include the developed nations. However, there is rapid growth in the "developing countries." Of particular note is the growth associated with China and India.

 World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980 - 2030
World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1990 - 2040.
Credit: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Given the abundance of coal in many of the developed and developing countries, it seems likely that coal will play an increasingly important role in electricity production. This has implications for carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants, as much of the new capacity in developing nations have limited pollution controls.

 World Map of coal basins.
Global coal occurrences [9,21,22].
Credit: Photo Source

Yet with all this growth there are still other considerations for those who will still not have access to electricity. Also, recent reports have questioned if we have access to the coal we think we have. The economics of extraction and the legal access is impacted by graveyards, roadways, etc. An analysis of the Powder River Basin coal field reduced the reserve base by 50%. When we look closer, this may be the case with other fields too. So a 250 year supply is likely on the high side. Perhaps 100 years or so is more likely. We will see.

 World Electric Power Generation, 2004 - 2030.
World Electric Power Generation, 2004 - 2030
Credit: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-Jul 2006), website www.eia.doe.gov [8]. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Yet with all this growth there are still other considerations for those who will still not have access to electricity. Currently in the millions, most of the world is expected to have an increase in electrification and a reduction of those without access to electricity. However, sub-Saharan Africa will increase those without access.

 Number of people without electricity in the developing world.
The number of people without electricity in the developing world (millions).
Credit: IEA 2004

You get a striking view of this inequity (and population clustering) when viewing this well known composite image of the Earth viewed from space at night.

 Composite image of the earth viewed from space at night.
Composite image of the Earth viewed from space at night.
Credit: NASA
 Image with the words "That's all Folks!"

This is the end of the course material. Please complete the Lesson 13 quiz.


Source URL: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee101/node/658

Links
[1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO_Narrative_2021.pdf
[2] https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf
[3] https://www.netl.doe.gov/research/coal/carbon-storage/natcarb-atlas
[4] http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/intro
[5] http://www.eia.gov/countries/
[6] http://environmentalhistory.org/2014/06/19/oil-industry/
[7] http://www.giignl.org/about-lng/lng-basics
[8] http://www.eia.doe.gov