LESSON 8 OUTLINE

ASSIGNMENT: Climate Change Project, Part A

You have read about the historical record of Nile flood and flow levels, and used those data to infer variations in climate over the past several millennia. In this project you will use data collected over the past 100 years to see whether widespread burning of fossil fuels has resulted in a climatic change in Africa. These data represent the entire current set of values that are available to the scientific community. That means you are working with the same data as the climate modelers and politicians as they try to address global climate change and its impacts.

The Lesson 08 folder in ANGEL has a DROPBOX: Climate Change Project, Part A where you will place your MS Excel file that shows your completed calculations and graphing of climatic data. You will also find a form in the Lesson 08 folder of ANGEL called "Climate Change Project, Part A" Submission Form. This is where you will submit your responses to the graded questions in this activity for Part A. The second part of the assignment, Part B, is continued in Lesson 9. Note that you will not be allowed to complete Part B without first finishing Part A. A final project grade will be posted at a minimum one week after the deadline for Part B has passed.

Goals

The goals of the exercise boil down to being able to answer one question based on scientific data:

1. Is there evidence for climate change in Africa during the period of historic rainfall measurements?

 

What do you think? Do you expect to find that rainfall will have increased, decreased, stayed the same, or perhaps varied in unpredictable ways? Write some clear sentences that explain your prediction. This will be your response to Question #1 on Climate Change Project, Part A.

 

Suggestions for tackling the assignment:

There are 15 MS Excel files associated with this exercise. Each file contains precipitation data (measured in millimeters) collected on a monthly basis for a station in Africa. Each student is fully responsible for interpreting data collected at five individual stations. You can find the stations you have been assigned to work with in the folder Station Responsibilities and Excel files. Open the first file to see which Excel files you should download from the folder to your computer to work with.

1. In each MS Excel file, you will need to calculate the average monthly rainfall for each month and the total annual rainfall for each year. You can use formulas in Excel to have Excel do the work for you, or calculate your answers by hand and type them into the spreadsheet.
   1. Need help inserting the formulas into Excel for calculating the total annual rainfall? See the instructional video for assistance.
   2. Need help inserting the formulas into Excel for calculating the average monthly rainfall? See the instructional video for assistance.
   3. NOTE: There are some "gaps" in the data listed with most cities. Do not to include the erroneous data in your calculations - the "gaps" in the record will throw your averages and totals off! You will have to eliminate those years from your total annual rainfall graph that have incomplete data. If you are unsure how to do this, the process is explained in the instructional video for total annual rainfall.
2. After the calculations are finished, you will need to plot the average monthly rainfall and total annual rainfall.
   1. For average monthly rainfall, create a vertical column graph with months on the x-axis and rainfall (mm) on the y-axis. For total annual rainfall, create a xy (scatter) that doesn't "connect the dots" with years on the x-axis and rainfall (mm) on the y-axis. I strongly suggest that as you use the Chart Wizard in Excel to plot the data, you select "new sheet" in Step 4 of 4, Select Chart Location. Create both of these graphs for each station location.
   2. Each of your five Excel files should have three sheets - the data sheet (provided with the assignment), a vertical column graph of average monthly rainfall, and a xy (scatter) graph of total annual rainfall.
   3. NOTE: The five Excel files are due in the dropbox on Friday, while the rest of the asssignment is due on Sunday!
   4. Need help creating a vertical column graph in Excel? See the instructional video for assistance.
   5. Need help creating a xy (scatter) plot in Excel? See the instructional video for assistance.
3. For Part A of this assignment, you do not need to worry about the locations of your five stations. You will be examining the location information to put this information and other data in a continental perspective in Part B next week.
4. Once the five MS Excel files have been submitted with the completed calculations and graphs, the form will be unlocked for "Climate Change Project, Part A" Submission Form.
5. When you have finished formulating your responses to the assignment questions below, copy your responses into the form and submit.

Assignment Questions (viewable after the five MS Excel files have been submitted in the dropbox):

1. Do you expect to find that rainfall will have increased, decreased, stayed the same, or perhaps varied in unpredictable ways? Write some clear sentences that explain your prediction. (**NOTE: this is the question listed at the beginning of the assignment)
2. Station #1 - List city and country, then give description of average monthly rainfall (in other words, discuss the timing, duration and intensity of the rainy season. Is there just one rainy season or two?)
3. Station #1 - List city and country, then give description of total annual rainfall (in other words, discuss the trends of rainfall amounts over time. Has it been the same for the entire record of the station? Has there been increasing/decreasing rainfall? Any individual years stand out as excessively wet or dry?)
4. Station #2 - List city and country, then give description of average monthly rainfall (in other words, discuss the timing, duration and intensity of the rainy season. Is there just one rainy season or two?)
5. Station #2 - List city and country, then give description of total annual rainfall (in other words, discuss the trends of rainfall amounts over time. Has it been the same for the entire record of the station? Has there been increasing/decreasing rainfall? Any individual years stand out as excessively wet or dry?)
6. Station #3 - List city and country, then give description of average monthly rainfall (in other words, discuss the timing, duration and intensity of the rainy season. Is there just one rainy season or two?)
7. Station #3 - List city and country, then give description of total annual rainfall (in other words, discuss the trends of rainfall amounts over time. Has it been the same for the entire record of the station? Has there been increasing/decreasing rainfall? Any individual years stand out as excessively wet or dry?)
8. Station #4 - List city and country, then give description of average monthly rainfall (in other words, discuss the timing, duration and intensity of the rainy season. Is there just one rainy season or two?)
9. Station #4 - List city and country, then give description of total annual rainfall (in other words, discuss the trends of rainfall amounts over time. Has it been the same for the entire record of the station? Has there been increasing/decreasing rainfall? Any individual years stand out as excessively wet or dry?)
10. Station #5 - List city and country, then give description of average monthly rainfall (in other words, discuss the timing, duration and intensity of the rainy season. Is there just one rainy season or two?)
11. Station #5 - List city and country, then give description of total annual rainfall (in other words, discuss the trends of rainfall amounts over time. Has it been the same for the entire record of the station? Has there been increasing/decreasing rainfall? Any individual years stand out as excessively wet or dry?)
12. With the data from your five stations, do they all have the same average monthly rainfall? Total annual rainfall? Briefly describe similarities and differences. WITHOUT LOOKING AT A MAP, give some explanations as to WHY you think these similarities/variations between stations exist.

Deadlines

All responses must be uploaded in ANGEL no later than 11:00 PM on the due date (see Calendar tab in ANGEL). Note that is 11:00 PM by ANGEL's clock, not by the clock on your computer! The submission form will disappear at 11:00 PM, and this assignment will not be accepted late under any circumstances. I have no problems giving students a zero for an assignment if they do not take the responsibility to submit by the deadline, so don't even think about trying to submit this late! REMINDER: The Excel file needs to be placed in the dropbox by 11PM Friday, while the assignment questions need to be completed by 11PM Sunday.

Resources to help get you started

As this assignment requires you to visualize the precipitation amounts in each of your five locations across the continent, it may be helpful to print off your calculated values and graphs in the Excel files for easy access. Keep in mind that this assignment is created as steps, where the Excel file must be in the dropbox before the graded response form becomes active. Be careful as you compare the graphs across your five stations. Notice that the scales on the x-axes and y-axes are not the same!