LESSON 6 OUTLINE

Assignment: The 1959 Water Agreement

We are fortunate to have a long historical record of Nile flood levels – almost 4500 years of data. Although the river is very predictable, its floods are not of consistent height from year to year. This observation should not be a surprise, as we know from our own experience that the amount of rain can vary on an annual basis. Between the years 800 and 1400 A.D., 73% of the Nile floods were “normal,” while 22% were below normal (and thus failed to flood the needed croplands) and 5% of the floods were destructively high.

In 1959 the governments of Egypt and the Sudan negotiated a Water Agreement that still stands today. The agreement specifies the amount of water each country may take from the Nile. Allocations were based on the average Nile discharge from the early 1900s through 1959.

In this exercise, you re-enact the process that was undertaken to develop the 1959 treaty. As you will see, changing rainfall patterns and competing national interests have made it difficult for the treaty to be upheld.

Use the supplied data table (Excel spreadsheet) to answer the following questions and to decide whether the 1959 agreement is adequate for the water needs of Egypt and the Sudan.

You will find a form in the Lesson 6 folder in ANGEL called The 1959 Water Agreement Submission Form. This is where you will submit your responses to the questions listed below.

1. Copy the questions below to a Microsoft Word file and work there on developing your responses. This is a safeguard against any Internet and/or ANGEL glitches that might occur while you are drafting your work.
2. When finished, submit your paper to the Turnitin.com Inbox for "The 1959 Water Agreement" to confirm you have no accidental occurrences of plagiarism.
3. After you have your report back from Turnitin.com, copy the sections from your MS Word document and paste under the appropriate questions in the online submission form for this assignment. The online submission form is titled "The 1959 Water Agreement" Submission Form; it is included in the Lesson 06 folder of ANGEL. You must submit this form by the due date mentioned on the Course Calendar in ANGEL.

Keep in mind... I am going to assume that everyone knows nothing about the 1959 Water Agreement! So your job in this course is to prove to me that you are learning something! I will look for details and evidence that you have thought about the material. And trust me, I can see through "fluff" that is copied directly from the Internet!

Deadline

All responses must be uploaded in the ANGEL no later than 11:00 PM on the due date (see Calendar tab in ANGEL). Note that is 11:00 PM by ANGEL's clock, not by the clock on your computer! The submission form will disappear at 11:00 PM, and this assignment will not be accepted late under any circumstances. I have no problems giving students a zero for an assignment if they do not take the responsibility to submit by the deadline, so don't even think about trying to submit this late!

Assignment Questions:

1. What was the highest annual (total) discharge between 1912 and 1959, in billions of cubic meters (BCM)? You will need to convert from millions to billions. What was the lowest annual (total) discharge during that same period, in BCM?
2. In what year did Egypt begin over-year storage of the annual flood? That is, when was there an effective dam at Aswan? How can you tell?
3. What was the average annual Nile discharge from 1912 through 1959? This value is the significant number for all calculations in the Sudano-Egyptian water treaties.
4. How does the number you calculated in the previous question compare with the average annual discharge rates in the decades following completion of the dam, as listed below? A qualitative answer is fine.
   • 1977-1987 (ten years): 72 billion m³
   • 1984-1987 (three years): 52 billion m³
5. Why was the river flow lower in the 1970s and 1980s than during the pre-1959 period?
6. What do you think about the notion of Lake Nasser acting as a savior for Egypt (a) considering the variability in Nile discharge and (b) noting that the amount of water needed by Egypt exceeds 50 BCM annually?

1. Don't forget that you'll need to access this MS Excel spreadsheet to view the historic Nile discharge rates, going back to 1912.
2. Unsure of how to calculate an average in MS Excel? Check out the instructional video on how to average a group of numbers.

Grading criteria

Here is how the assignment will be graded.

• Question #1-6 will be graded as 2, 1, or 0. Two points will be given for a complete and accurate answer. One point will be given for a response that is partially correct or incomplete. Zero points will be awarded if the answer is completely incorrect or left blank.
• Question #7 - As for your references, I am looking for correct format in APA style. If you do not have the correct style, then I reserve the right to deduct 15 points off of your final assignment grade (once it is scaled to 100%) for inaccurate documentation. If there is an academic integrity violation, I will puruse the procedures outlined in Lesson 0. If you do not use any references for this assignment besides the data table provided, please write "no additional sources used" in the space provided.